Top-10 laps prove un-predictive

Running at the front of the pack is supposed to be a good thing, and as one part of the formula that accounts for our Fantasy Power Ranking, it is typically a good predictor. Unfortunately, it falls a little short on the six "cookie-cutter" tracks of Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe's Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway and Chicagoland Speedway.

In the last five years, Tony Stewart has spent more time in the top 10 than any other driver. With 1,079 laps at the front of the pack, he's circled the track with the leaders more than 80 percent of the time and yet his average finish of 14.27 during the past five years on the "cookie-cutter" tracks is only seventh best.

To make this even more curious, he has not been plagued with too much bad luck. In the 44 races that have occurred since this part of the schedule in 2004, Stewart has only failed to finish four races. He was slowed by crash damage on two other occasions, but for the most part, he's been running at the end of the day. His old Joe Gibbs Racing team seemed to simply miss the setup in the closing laps.

On the other hand, Jimmie Johnson has the second most laps in the top 10 during the last five rolling years and he's been able to convert those into top-10 finishes. With 1,062 laps in the top 10, he's spent 79 percent of his time with the leaders on the six "cookie-cutter" tracks.

Chad Knaus has been able to help him close the deal, however, and he's earned an average finish of 8.7 in the last five years—nearly five positions better than his closest competitor. Johnson also has four DNFs during that time frame, but he's earned 25 top-fives and 31 top-10s in those 44 races compared to only 23 top-10s for Stewart.

The second-most productive driver in terms of their five-year average finish is Jeff Burton with a 13.23. Notably, he has scored the exact same number of top-10 finishes in the last year as Stewart with 23. The key to his success, however, seems to be consistency. Even though he's been significantly off the pace in three of the last 44 "cookie-cutter" races, he hasn't recorded a single DNF.

Kyle Busch is another great example of how strength and success are not always the same thing. This all or nothing driver has spent the majority of his time at the front of the pack. He was not yet competing in July 2004 and so has run in one less race during the past five years than his competitors. That means that his 855 laps spent in the top 10 is 80 percent of his personal total.

Busch's "hell for leather" style of racing, however, has seen him hit the showers early four times because of crash damage and once for a broken timing chain. On two other occasions, he was significantly slowed by crash damage and that has left him with only the 12th-best five-year average finish of 16.49.

For a fantasy owner that means that even though it's great when your driver dominates a race, it's not the only factor that goes into winning. Ultimately only the finishing position counts for points, so take drivers with a long history of success this week instead of those who have impressed you with their strength.

Laps in the top 10, sorted by five-year average finish

Laps' Rank	Driver	Top-10 laps	Possible	%	5 Yr Avg.
2	Jimmie Johnson	1,062	1,338	79%	8.70
10	Jeff Burton	420	1,338	31%	13.23
4	Matt Kenseth	966	1,338	72%	13.43
14	Carl Edwards	380	1,071	35%	13.56
6	Jeff Gordon	723	1,338	54%	14.00
1	Tony Stewart	1,079	1,338	81%	14.27
9	Greg Biffle	563	1,338	42%	14.52
12	Mark Martin	380	1,338	28%	15.16
20	Clint Bowyer	159	804	20%	15.55
23	Denny Hamlin	146	804	18%	15.86
8	Dale Earnhardt Jr	577	1,338	43%	15.91
5	Kyle Busch	855	1,071	80%	16.49
3	Kevin Harvick	1,040	1,338	78%	17.50
11	Casey Mears	407	1,338	30%	17.73
24	Jamie McMurray	119	1,338	9%	19.18
13	Kurt Busch	380	1,338	28%	19.45
19	Kasey Kahne	226	1,338	17%	19.91
18	Martin Truex Jr	288	804	36%	20.91
7	Brian Vickers	585	1,071	55%	21.32
15	Ryan Newman	339	1,338	25%	21.98
22	Bobby Labonte	153	1,338	11%	22.07
16	Elliott Sadler	297	1,338	22%	22.89
34	Juan Montoya	2	534	0%	23.36
29	David Stremme	30	804	4%	23.83
21	David Ragan	157	534	29%	24.65
17	Reed Sorenson	289	804	36%	25.67
26	Joe Nemechek	95	1,338	7%	26.30
39	David Gilliland	0	534	0%	27.04
30	Dave Blaney	21	1,338	2%	27.38
38	Paul Menard	0	534	0%	27.38
37	David Reutimann	0	534	0%	27.64
27	Robby Gordon	43	1,338	3%	27.84
40	Sam Hornish Jr	0	267	0%	28.60
31	Michael Waltrip	16	1,338	1%	29.36
28	Mike Bliss	32	534	6%	29.50
25	A J Allmendinger	118	267	44%	31.10
35	Bill Elliott	0	804	0%	31.20
36	Tony Raines	0	537	0%	31.41
33	John Andretti	5	534	1%	33.89
32	Mike Wallace	6	267	2%	35.77