June 20, 2009

N'Wide: Edwards wins at Milwaukee

Carl Edwards has had a dismal year in 2009, but you wouldn't know that by how he race Saturday night. He ran away from the field in the final segment to earn his first win of the season.

Our View: You had to know that Edwards wouldn't be kept down forever. He should relish it, because Sunday is going to be a challenge on the road course.

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IRL: Beatriz wins Iowa Indy Lights race

Ana Beatriz blasted into the lead on the final lap as another female driver Pippa Mann ended up on her lid. Beatriz navigated the crash and is now the first two-time female winner.

Our View: Perhaps Jack Roush should be talking to her about making the switch to NASCAR; she wouldn't have any issues paying her dues in Nationwide.

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ARCA: Kligerman wins Mansfield

Parker Kligerman led most of the Tim Richmond Memorial 200, but don't let that fool you. For most of the second half of the event, Joey Coulter was on his back bumper.

Our View: With three laps to go a caution waved, which made Kligerman's job even tougher. By then, Coulter's tires were gone and he had to fight off a furious charge from Chris Buescher.

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CW West: Logano finishes 17th

After leading from lap 26 through 63, Joey Logano finished only 17th in the Camping World West finish. He was spun on the final lap in the turn 11 hairpin by Patrick Long.

Our View: His finish at this level is not nearly as important as the experience he gained. Logano was also strong in this event last year before blowing an engine and he's got a lot of promise as a road racer.

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IRL: Iowa lineup with avg. start/finish

It was a tough day at Iowa Speedway as persistent weepers in the track canceled qualification. The Indy Racing League did their dead-level best to get the session in the books, but could never send more than two cars out without stopping the action. That forced them to set the lineup by owner points, which places Helio Castroneves on the pole. That is familiar territory; in two previous starts on this track, he's started second on average, but doesn't have nearly as good a record in race trim. In two races at Iowa, he's finished eighth and 14th.

Scott Dixon starts second and he would seem to be a much better value. In his two starts, he's started on the pole in both events. He's swept the top-10 on this track, but the greater recommendation is that he swept the top five on the IRL's short tracks last year with a fourth in Iowa and a third at Richmond.

The best value this week, however, is Dario Franchitti. In his last two short track races, he swept victory lane at Iowa and Richmond in 2007. He rolls off the grid fourth.

Lineup with avg. start/finish

StartDriverAvg. FinAvg. StartAttempts
1Helio Castroneves11.002.002
2Ryan Briscoe7.005.001
3Scott Dixon7.001.002
4Dario Franchitti1.003.001
5Danica Patrick9.508.502
6Dan Wheldon6.006.002
7Tony Kanaan17.005.502
8Marco Andretti2.5010.002
9Graham Rahal10.0016.001
10Justin Wilson12.0020.001
11Hideki Mutoh2.007.001
12Raphael Matos


13Ed Carpenter14.507.002
14Robert Doornbos


15Mario Moraes19.0024.001
16Tomas Scheckter19.0014.001
17Ryan Hunter-Reay8.0014.001
18E J Viso13.0013.001
19Mike Conway


20Jaques Lazier




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ARCA: Lofton on Mansfield pole

Justin Lofton will lead the ARCA field to green for the Tim Richmond Memorial 200, according to ARCARacing.com.

Our View: In his last short track race at Toledo this season, he finished second at Toledo after starting second.

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N'Wide: Darnell on Milwaukee pole

Erik Darnell has captured the pole for the Nationwide race in Milwaukee. Brad Coleman is on the outside pole.

Our View: Last year, he qualified Carl Edwards's car 11th for this race, but he'll get a chance to race this week in the No. 6. In five previous Nationwide starts, he has one top-five, two top-10s and four top-15s.

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IRL: Iowa qualification canceled, Castroneves on pole

According to live timing and scoring at IndyCar.com, qualification has been canceled and the field will be set by owner points. That places Helio Castroneves on the pole.

Our View: Castroneves finished only 14th in this race last year, but he should still be considered a strong threat because he finished second on the other short track of Richmond International Raceway.

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CW West: Long penalized, Bowles wins Infineon

Strike that. Patrick Long has been penalized by NASCAR for intentionally spinning Joey Logano, which has given the victory to Jason Bowles.

Our View: Long lost the lead of the Camping World East race in the next to last turn after contact by Ryan Truex—and he vowed "what goes around, comes around." Unfortunately, he seems to have lost sight of the fact that Logano wasn't Truex.

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CW West: Long wins, Logano spins

Road racing specialist Patrick Long won the Camping World West race at Infineon on the final lap after Joey Logano spun from the lead, according to a tweet from @NASCARHomeTrack.

Our View: As disappointing as that is for the teenage Cup rookie, he got a chance to battle a great road racer and earned a ton of experience. He's not recommended for Sunday's Cup race, but he could get a solid finish nonetheless.

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Infineon pit stall selections

Jayski.com has posted the pit stall selections for the Infineon Toyota / SaveMart 350k.

Our View: Brian Vickers took the 23rd slot instead of the first. This pit has an opening in front of it and should allow him to have a little more momentum at pit out. Outside pole sitter Kyle Busch has pit No. 11—also with an opening in front—and Marcos Ambrose has pit stall No. 1.

Casual contact between Ambrose/Johnson at Infineon

Apparently there was casual contact between Marcos Ambrose and Jimmie Johnson during Happy Hour, according to a tweet from @BobPockcrass.

Our View: Ambrose was on track for only two laps. It's hard to imagine that he found trouble in that short a period. According to that same tweet, Johnson's car had minimal damage.

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Said to be pitted by Wood Bros.

The Wood Bros. team will pit Boris Said's No 08 John Carter Ford this week, according to Jayski.com.

Our View: Said will roll off the grid from a top-10 spot, but his practice times were not overly strong. The Wood Bros. will do a great job in the pits, but currently we favor Ron Fellows and Patrick Carpentier among the road course ringers.

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Trucks: Hornaday wins 41st Truck race

Ron Hornaday held off Dennis Setzer and Brian Scott at the Milwaukee Mile following a caution with less than 10 laps remaining.

Our View: This was a birthday present for Hornaday and he has a chance to get an even bigger win. He will be running in the Nationwide Series race later on Saturday in equally strong Kevin Harvick, Inc. equipment.

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R Gordon wins Infineon Happy Hour

Robby Gordon posted the quickest time in Infineon Happy Hour, with a speed of 91.684 during 13 laps.

Our View Gordon was not very fast in the morning session and he struggled in qualification, but it's great to see him finally find some speed. A top-10 is possible for the No. 7.

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Allmendinger posts single fast lap in Infineon Happy Hour

A.J. Allmendinger posted the single fastest lap in Happy Hour for the Toyota / SaveMart 350k at Infineon Raceway.

Our View Allmendinger has a lot of road racing experience in the Indy Racing League and Indy Lights, but unfortunately his average speed during this session was only mid-pack. You will find much better values at his level.

Gilliland gets road course backup

Fantasy owners who heard David Gilliland say the team did not have a road course backup will be glad to know that he is going to borrow a backup from Martin Truex Jr., according to a tweet from @BobPockrass.

Our View: That is great news. If he had to use his speedway backup a possible top-15 was a long shot. Now he should be regarded as fair value with a top-15 potential.

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N'Wide: Coleman fastest in final Milwaukee practice

Brad Coleman posted the fastest single lap in the final practice session at Milwaukee, according to a tweet from @NASCAR_NNS.

Our View: Coleman is in the No. 20 normally driven by Joey Logano, so he has the horses to run with the leaders all day. As a part time driver, he will be a good value in Nationwide games as well—which makes him a double threat.

Practice Times

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IRL: Dixon tops first practice at Iowa

Scott Dixon posted the fastest lap in Iowa's first practice session, according to a tweet from @IndyCarPR.

Our View: In his last three races on IRL short tracks, Dixon has swept the top five. He finished fourth at Iowa and third at Richmond last year, so he definitely deserves a spot on your roster.

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Fellows wins Infineon Saturday a.m. practice

Marcos Ambrose posted the quickest average speed in the Saturday morning practice session, but he blew an engine midway through and will be forced to change his engine. Ron Fellows—in the No. 09 of James Finch—was the next quickest driver with a speed of 91.784 during six laps, so we'll credit him with leading this session.

Our View: Fellows has the skills and this team has already won on a specialty track at Talladega SuperSpeedway with Brad Keselowski at the wheel. Fellows should be considered one of the favorite road ringers and he could finish in the top 10.

Ambrose blows engine in Infineon practice 2

Marcos Ambrose blew an engine about halfway through the Saturday morning practice session and he will be forced to change the powerplant and give up his third-place spot on the grid.

Our View: At Watkins Glen last year, Ambrose climbed from 43rd to third, so he should still be considered a good value. However, his odds of winning have taken a huge hit.

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N'Wide: Allgaier crashes in Milwaukee practice

Justin Allgaier has crashed hard in practice at the Milwaukee Mile and will be forced to roll out a backup car, according to a tweet from @NASCAR_NNS.

Our View: Allgaier was in fast equipment and his backup is likely to be just as strong, but as is nearly always the case in these situations, his odds have slipped slightly.

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Gilliland, Andretti crash at pit out

David Gilliland rammed into the back of John Andretti at the end of pit road. It appeared that Andretti was waiting for a hole in traffic and Gilliland was not expecting him to be so slow.

Our View: Gilliland has heavy damage and will almost certainly have to roll out a backup car. He was starting near the back anyway, but this still hurts his chances to finish in the top-10. A top-15 is still possible, however.

Dark Horse Report: Sadler best at Infineon

Elliott Sadler is not the first driver who pops into fantasy owners' heads at Infineon Raceway, but in terms of average finishes, this is his best track. He boasts an average of 15.8 in 10 attempts.

Our View: Three of his last five races on this track resulted in top-10s, but his last two efforts were only 14th and 19th. Not bad, but he will only fit the last slot on your roster.

Dark Horse Reports

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June 19, 2009

Red Bull buys Speed a ride

As expected, Red Bull Racing has struck a deal with Joe Nemechek to get Scott Speed into the show, according to a tweet from @DustinLong.

Our View: Normally, we approach these agreements with skepticism, but at least Speed will try to run the full event and not "start and park" as Nemechek has done in recent weeks. Before failing to qualify, Speed was on a top 10 pace, so he could be a decent value.

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Vickers wins fourth pole of the season

Brian Vickers has become a qualifying master. He earned his fourth pole of the season, and these have come on speedways, a short track and now a road course.

Our View: Starting position is critical to success on a road course, so Vickers odds of a good finish have skyrocketed with this effort.

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Yahoo! Qualification Story – Infineon

Qualification on a road course is critical to winning, but someone forgot to tell that to Juan Montoya and Kyle Busch during the last two years. They started in the 30s en route to the checkers at Infineon. Who'll win this week? check out our predictions in this weeks Yahoo! qualification story (.pdf).

F1: FOTA votes to breakaway

The Formula One Teams Association has voted to form their own series in 2010, citing irreconcilable differences with Formula 1, Bernie Ecclestone, and most importantly Max Mosely, according to AutoRacingDaily.com.

Our View: From the sidelines, it seems that Mosely's stubborn refusal to allow any type of compromise is going to ensure that war is declared between the two parties. It really doesn't matter what either side says is at the heart of the matter—this boils down to personalities.

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Ambrose tops Infineon practice 1

In the final minutes of practice, it was a game of King Me. Jeff Gordon laid down a lap of 76.73 seconds (93.368 mph) and on that same lap, Marcos Ambrose bettered him. The No. 47 clocked in at 76.70 seconds (93.404 mph).

Our View: The pole is going to be a nail-biter, but since these guys are at the opposite ends of the spectrum in most fantasy games, there is no reason to not have both on your team.

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IRL: IndycCar.com Iowa Preview

"(This week) starts that stretch of Iowa and Richmond, two tracks that I really enjoy," Dario Franchitti said at IndyCar.com.

Our View: And he should—he won the last two short track races in that series.

See Also: Short Trackin' Indy Style

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Trucks: Lineup set by points

Qualification for the Camping World Truck Series in Milwaukee has been canceled and the lineup will be set by owner points.

Our View: This puts Brian Ickler on the pole in the No. 51 Billy Ballew truck. Kyle Busch has this truck running strong and Ickler could earn his first win in it.

The leader in the driver's points standings is Matt Crafton; he'll roll off the grid second.

Complete Lineup

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CW West: Long tops Infineon Happy Hour

Patrick Long posted the fastest time in the final practice session for the Camping World West race, according to @NASCARHomeTracks.com.

Our View: Long was only 13th quick in the first session, however. Joey Logano was fastest in that session and second in Happy Hour, so we will give the edge to the Joe Gibbs racer. David Gilliland was fifth best in this session after posting the eighth quickest time in the morning.

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F1: In midst of turmoil, Villeneuve eyes return

According to Auto123.com, Jacques Villeneuve has confirmed that he's been in contact with some Formula 1 teams about a possible return to the series. If a split occurs, however, he would prefer to stay with the one run by Bernie Ecclestone.

Our View: A potential schism would certainly create more rides, but the lack of competition already prevalent in Formula 1 would be even worse. If the split does not occur, Villeneuve believes there still may be some fresh teams entering the sport.

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Ambrose loses tire in V8 Supercars

Fantasy owners need to remember that Marcos Ambrose is one of the most experienced road racers in the field - in cars as heavy as NASCAR stockers - but his record isn't perfect. In this video, he looses a wheel.

CW West: Gilliland, Said also in top 10 in practice

Boris Said and David Gilliland also posted top-10 times in practice for the Camping World West race. Gilliland was eighth fastest; Said was ninth.

Our View: On Sunday, Gilliland will be in a car strong enough to run in the top 15. Said certainly has the skill to run well in the Toyota / SaveMart 350k, but he may not have the car.

Practice Times

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CW West: Logano tops practice

Joey Logano posted the fastest time in practice for Bennett Lane Winery 200 Camping World West race.

Our View: While the cars are considerably different, this race can still be used as a warm-up for Sunday's Toyota / SaveMart 350k. Logano will be a better value in the Cup level because of this seat time.

Practice Speeds

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Fuel mileage an issue at Infineon

Expect fuel mileage to continue to be an issue at Infineon, according to Mark Martin and Denny Hamlin in an article by the Sporting News Wire Service. "I think it's almost a given that fuel will be an issue to some degree at Infineon Raceway based on the nature of road-course racing," said Martin.

"We know fuel mileage be a huge factor here," Hamlin said. "We ran at Virginia International Raceway last week and had a good test. We spent a lot of time on handling, but we spent some time on fuel mileage also, and we hope that translates to this weekend as well as it did last weekend at Michigan."

Our View: The strategy will be a little different, however. On road courses drivers plan the race backward. They will plan their final pit stop and come in for service whether the conditions are green or yellow. It's possible that someone will catch a lucky caution.

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IRL: Andretti to Patrick: "don't give up your life to NASCAR"

In the continuing saga of whether Danica Patrick will make a move to NASCAR, her current team owner Michael Andretti cautions her not to give up her life to NASCAR racing, which runs 36 points' paying races per year, according to USAToday.com.

Our View: For her part, Patrick has said in the past that she is not attracted to NASCAR because of the schedule. She's young enough to have the stamina, but the heart also needs to be committed to run well in this series.

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F1: Vettel, Weber tops both practices

Sebastian Vettel and Mark Weber were the fastest and second fastest drivers respectively in the two practice sessions for the British Grand Prix at Silverstone.

In the first practice, the two Brawn Racing teammates Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello were not far behind, placing third and fourth on the grid.

Our View: These two teams have been the class of the field all season and those four drivers are likely to dominate in the top-five again.

Practice 1 Times
Practice 2 Times

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Montoya best at Infineon

In his short career, Infineon Raceway has been the most kind to Juan Montoya. His average finish of 3.5 there in two starts makes that his best record.

Our View: Better still, Montoya won his inaugural attempt on this track and he should be favored for at least a top-five this week.

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June 18, 2009

The Passing Grade

There is plenty of excitement on NASCAR road courses; you just have to know where to look.

Infineon Raceway is listed as an 11-turn course, but that is a little misleading. The modern NASCAR circuit skips turns five and six, which comprise an inner loop. This part of the track was used when the series first started visiting Sonoma, but designers decided that the stock cars would perform better if a chute was added to connect turns four and seven.

They were right. The twisty segment that is currently avoided acted a lot like the current esses, only with drivers reaching much faster speeds. Not a lot of passing went on in this segment, but during the last five years, 11 percent of the total passes for position have come in turn seven. Another 10 percent come in the segment of turns two, three and four, which is an uphill climb following the start/finish line, but most of these passes are actually made in the final corner numbered "four A."

The grandstands at Infineon are located between turns 11 and one, which also provides a great view of turn 10, and there is a good reason for that. Thirty-two percent of the total passes for position come in the turn 11-12 complex—otherwise known as the hairpin and kink onto the front stretch. Another 27 percent of the passing occurs in turn 10, which comes at the end of a long sweeping left hand corner that is the culmination of the backstretch esses. That will continue to be the action spots on Sunday.

Some road racing specialists, however, have shown they can pass anywhere. Only two percent of the total passes have been made in the backstretch esses. Tony Stewart has been the king of turns eight and nine. Of the total 158 passes that have been made in that section during the last four years, Stewart has completed seven percent of them. The next most productive driver in this segment might surprise fantasy owners, however. Casey Mears has six percent of those passes to his credit and no one else has more than four.

Of course, Mears has had more opportunities to pass overall than most of the leaders. Drivers like Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Juan Montoya spend most of their time in the front of the pack and therefore don't have to overtake as many cars. With an average of 49.3 passes per race during the last four events (which is when NASCAR Statistical Services started tracking this stat), he has made the 10th most passes per race.

So who has had to pass the most cars? Among drivers with more than one start, Denny Hamlin leads the league. He's completed 64.7 passes per race in the three events he's run at Infineon. He's passed a lot of cars and that will get his fans up on their feet, but it hasn't always landed him at the very front of the pack. Hamlin finished 12th in 2006, was 10th in 2007, but only 27th last year.

Total Passes at Infineon

DriverRacesTotalAvg. per raceAvg. FinTurn 1Turn 2-4
Regan Smith17373.030.076
David Stremme16767.032.062
Denny Hamlin319464.716.32012
Michael Waltrip318461.323.32822
Brian Vickers317458.020.71214
David Ragan211557.526.5107
Bobby Labonte422957.331.33622
J.J. Yeley211457.027.0168
Clint Bowyer316555.08.0269
Jeremy Mayfield210753.514.52010
Travis Kvapil210351.521.5237
Casey Mears419749.318.03815
Tony Stewart418947.311.33041
Kevin Harvick418746.823.35417
Matt Kenseth418746.817.52721
Ron Fellows418546.322.32216
Joe Nemechek418446.028.03517
Terry Labonte418345.816.82811
Reed Sorenson29145.534.5117
Martin Truex Jr.313344.318.32723
Carl Edwards417644.017.82720
Chris Cook14444.028.0104
Jeff Gordon417243.011.02114
Dave Blaney417142.829.82926
Greg Biffle417042.58.53421
David Gilliland312742.319.7198
Elliott Sadler416942.311.83316
Robby Gordon416942.327.04226
Bill Elliott14242.019.050
Juan Montoya28442.03.51813
Michael McDowell14040.021.064
Jeff Burton415939.813.33413
Kasey Kahne415839.532.0298
Kyle Busch415739.315.03718
Patrick Carpentier13939.023.072
Dale Earnhardt Jr.415238.023.33912
Jimmie Johnson415137.819.52521
Boris Said414536.319.01414
Jamie McMurray414035.021.52921
Ryan Newman413834.59.52310
Paul Menard13333.034.035
Scott Riggs26532.525.51810
Mark Martin26432.014.0811
Sam Hornish Jr.13030.031.050
Kurt Busch411428.515.5226
Aric Almirola12727.028.080
Brian Simo25427.026.582
Marcos Ambrose12525.042.023
AJ Allmendinger12424.037.022
Sterling Marlin35919.737.0128
David Reutimann11919.040.051
Max Papis11919.035.031
Tom Hubert23417.043.096
Mike Bliss11212.039.041
Brandon Ash166.038.013







Total
6,249

1,067 617
Percentage




17%10%


Driver
Turn 7Turn 8Turn 9Turn 10Turn 11-12
Regan Smith
6102231
David Stremme
2302529
Denny Hamlin
27327060
Michael Waltrip
23163866
Brian Vickers
28213780
David Ragan
7423649
Bobby Labonte
31226175
J.J. Yeley
15143238
Clint Bowyer
30124750
Jeremy Mayfield
7212740
Travis Kvapil
5013730
Casey Mears
15635169
Tony Stewart
23564341
Kevin Harvick
25102961
Matt Kenseth
26425354
Ron Fellows
18507351
Joe Nemechek
14225064
Terry Labonte
14135472
Reed Sorenson
3213235
Martin Truex Jr.
9033140
Carl Edwards
20235945
Chris Cook
3011115
Jeff Gordon
31034954
Dave Blaney
20014055
Greg Biffle
14034850
David Gilliland
11214739
Elliott Sadler
18304554
Robby Gordon
18223148
Bill Elliott
611209
Juan Montoya
12501521
Michael McDowell
401718
Jeff Burton
15214252
Kasey Kahne
8015854
Kyle Busch
18324732
Patrick Carpentier
210819
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
24222251
Jimmie Johnson
17233845
Boris Said
24014448
Jamie McMurray
20112741
Ryan Newman
16014345
Paul Menard
2001013
Scott Riggs
2101024
Mark Martin
12011616
Sam Hornish Jr.
100816
Kurt Busch
23122535
Aric Almirola
102511
Brian Simo
9211616
Marcos Ambrose
600410
AJ Allmendinger
210512
Sterling Marlin
13211211
David Reutimann
00157
Max Papis
10059
Tom Hubert
21169
Mike Bliss
20023
Brandon Ash
00002







Total
705 80 78 1,678 2,024
Percentage

11%1%1%27%32%


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